The persistent tension between economic growth and environmental sustainability has significantly influenced Mexico’s development trajectory. This ongoing challenge complicates efforts to reconcile economic progress with ecological responsibility. The present research examines the relationship between economic expansion and CO2 emissions in Mexico from 1965 to 2018, utilizing GDP per capita and Industrial Value Added as explanatory variables. Data from Nationally Determined Contributions were supplemented with information from the World Bank, INEGI, and INECC. A multiple regression model, estimated using Alternating Least Squares, was employed to address multicollinearity among predictors. The analysis demonstrates a statistically significant positive relationship: increases in GDP per capita and industrial activity are associated with higher CO2 emissions. These findings indicate that Mexico’s economic growth has remained carbonintensive, with industrialization and rising income levels closely linked to increased emissions. The results underscore the need for future policy to focus on decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions to promote sustainability.
climate change, economic growth, econometric model, CO2 emissions, Mexico, sustainability