This study quantitatively analyzes the state of barley production and food security in Syria from 2013 to 2022, a period marked by conflict and significant climate variability. The methodology involved a descriptive analysis of key food security indicators and a comparative analysis of barley production against annual rainfall data. The findings reveal high volatility in barley production and directly impacted by rainfall fluctuations, with a simple linear regression confirming a strong, positive, and statistically significant correlation (R = 0.712). Rainfall variability alone explains 50.7% of the variance in barley output. The analysis quantitatively links major production collapses, such as in 2017 and 2021, to years with significant rainfall deficits compared to the 10-year average. Conversely, peak production in 2019 corresponds to the highest recorded rainfall. The study finds a critical feed gap deficit peaking at -1,518 thousand tons and an average self-sufficiency rate of 50.4%. The data-driven analysis concludes that rainfall variability, compounded by conflict and economic sanctions, has critically undermined Syria's barley sector.
barley, food security, self-sufficiency, rainfall, climate change, Syria