Drought is a major climate-related threat to smallholder farmers in the arid and semi-arid regions of sub-Saharan Africa, yet localized empirical evidence on its livelihood impacts remains limited. This study examines farmers’ perceptions of drought and its socio-economic effects on livelihood diversification in the John Taolo Gaetsewe District Municipality (JTGDM) of South Africa. Using cross-sectional data from 150 households, the analysis combines descriptive statistics and weighted mean scores with a Poisson regression model to assess how drought-related shocks and socio-demographic factors influence the number of income-generating activities per household. Results show that 84% of respondents identified drought as the most severe climatic hazard, with high perception scores for its links to food insecurity (mean = 4.23), malnutrition (mean = 4.12), and wildfire risk (mean = 4.83). Econometric findings indicate that water scarcity reduced livelihood diversification by 22.3% (IRR = 0.777, p < 0.01), crop failure by 12.9% (IRR = 0.871, p < 0.01), livestock loss by 6.5% (IRR = 0.935, p < 0.01), and fire risk by 20.8% (IRR = 0.792, p < 0.01). Female-headed households had 23.7% fewer livelihood activities than male-headed households (IRR = 0.763, p < 0.01), while education and age were positively associated with diversification (p < 0.05). By combining farmers’ perceptions with count-data econometric analysis in an under-researched drought-prone district, this study provides context-specific insights into drought–livelihood dynamics. The findings highlight the need for adaptation policies that prioritize water infrastructure, gender-responsive support, and human capital development to strengthen smallholder resilience under increasing climatic stress.
Drought, smallholder farmers, perception, vulnerability, climate adaptation, resilience, South Africa